As for going with this estimate I believe the electoral voter turn out will be roughly 360-375 Obama to McCain 150-175. My main reasons as for going with that estimate is only based off of googling some sources. Obama also has control of large states with large amounts of electoral votes, such as California, Pennsylvania, and New York. However there are states like Florida or Ohio who are only slightly leaning Democratic that could change republican when the time comes. As for demographics, it's expected for McCain to do well in the mid-west and places like Texas, but big surprises such as the loss of Virginia for the republican side of things. But to assume the leaning states go the ways they lean, that's how I think the election will turn out.
For the popular vote I feel that it'll become around 50-55% for Obama and around 40-45% for McCain. Over the last week or so, McCain as lost the gap between the two of them in the popular vote, letting Obama even reach 10% or 11% at one point, if it continues, I believe it'll remain 5%-10% gap between the popular vote.
...Unless Nader, feels like screwing with the votes and drawing votes from either side, like he did in the 2000 election...darn you Nader! haha
As for the Senate race, I believe Mark Warner will win over Jim Gilmore mainly because that Mark Warner has been ahead in the polls by at least 20-30% in each of them, I don't think there will be a significant input of 20-30 more percent of republican voters for Gilmore coming out of no where!
As for the House races for the 10th and 11th District:
- For the 10th I think it'll become a close race between Judy Feder and Frank Wolf. I think both have a equal chance to win, I've seen much support for both sides and I think it could go down for either with a few percentage difference.
- For the 11th district I think it'll probably be Connolly for the win, I've not heard much or found much info on the race, but I believe he will win because he won the democratic primary vote with a 15% difference and his opponent, Keith Fimian, I've never really heard of to be quite honest haha.
Also yay last election blog post! :) :)
4 comments:
360-375 Obama to McCain 150-175 would be an awesome final count! Some people are saying that this election is so controversial that it will get caught up in litigation, but if Obama wins by that much there is no way that the Republicans can question him as the clear leader. Go Obama!
Yay for a blow away on Obama's part! I concluded about the same results and am excited to actually see them play out on Tuesday! so bummed I can't vote. Looks like Tyler will be representing us all! The popular voted was hard to estimate...I computed actual numbers in relation to the last election, but considering the turnout is supposed to be that much higher that was just a tad bit difficult to do.
As for the senate and districts, we had similar results. i do have to say the districts really made me do some research to get my facts right because no one really talks about them because they are so local and overpowered by the presidential race.
good job!
Yay for democrats!!! I'm excited for Obama!! I don't even think Feder has a chance though Wolf's gonna spank her! Also, I don't think Nadar will have much of an impact, he's a buffoon! Have fun voting Ronny I'm so jealous I can't vote!!
Ps. It's ok, I don't think anyone knows much about the house races.
Good job on your post, you went into a lot of detail!
I agree, Obama is going to win! We're finally going to have a black president and make some changes around in the U.S. And yes, Warner is going to win and I don't really know who's going to win House because I haven't paid attention to that race. But good job Ronny!
Post a Comment